Administration in Khartoum is calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Ethiopia and Tigrian forces that has seen tensions reach fever point exploding into a military confrontation over the past few weeks. This comes after Prime Minister Abiy launched a military offensive on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front on November 4 to end their provocation, after the group reportedly ambushed a military camp in Tigray region. The simmering Tigray conflict in Ethiopia is taking a heavy toll on Sudan as the growing humanitarian crisis threatens the fragile transitional government that is establishing its legitimacy. Sudan is worried that the spillover of conflict has already begun to teeter under the weight of its own delicate and vulnerable transitional government. Gedu Andargachew, a former Foreign Minister, now Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Advisor on National Security, Lt- Gen Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in a recent meeting have empathised the importance of regional security and the need to stop the conflict in Ethiopia as soon as possible and return to peaceful negotiation.

While political analysts in the region are calling for dialogue and talks to de-escalate tensions, Prime Minister Ahmed Abey and his  Administration in Addis Ababa have taken an uncompromising stance of solving the conflict militarily. Sudan's calls for the pacification of Ethiopia is borne out of the fear that it may get entangled in this conflict, especially at a time when it's democratic future is being negotiated after the ouster of President Omar El- Bashir.  There are also genuine fears that the conflict could create a humanitarian disaster due to refugees escaping hostilities in Ethiopia. Sudan, which was by the time of writing this policy update, hosting about 40,000 Ethiopian refugees fleeing Tigray, is just recovering from worst floods in decades that claimed over 150 people and displaced thousands. Sudan’s transitional authority, created in the aftermath of the ouster of former president Omar al-Bashir last year, has been bedevilled with sharp faultlines with its body politic between divergent political forces and a restive public over the path the country is taking. Therefore, it doesn't have the luxury of taking sides in a conflict from a neighbouring country. The government in Khartoum knows the conflict has the potential to create conditions for a possible rise in arms smuggling especially near the triangular border region between Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Meanwhile, the UNHCR warned of the consequences of the growing humanitarian crisis in the region, resulting from the ongoing fighting between the Ethiopian federal government and TPLF could have ripple effects in the region creating a refugee influx which could become a springboard for future hostilities.